I am writing this post from the Realtors Land Institute National Land Conference in Albuquerque NM. This annual conference is attended by about 500 of the top land agents across America. During the three-day conference we network with other land professionals and attend lectures by national economists, political analysts, scientists and other experts speaking on a wide array of topics related to land use and sales.
Economist Dr. Mark Dotzour shared his opinion that the US economy will continue to do well in the coming year. His analysis of current trends and historical data do not point towards a looming recession, as some of the national media have been touting. His advice to shut off your CNN and Fox News feed, which he feels is pure propaganda, was well received by attendees. Indicators such as a consumer confidence index at an 18-year high, a 3.5% wage increase nationwide in 2018, over 7 million open jobs in the US, low oil prices and low interest rates should keep the national land market up for 2019. Expect interest rates to creep up a little bit this year. The fed will look to make some room to drop rates when the next recession comes. At the current rates there is not much room to drop
A land use gaining momentum in the western and southeastern US, which I believe will become a larger niche market in Maine, is “glamping”. Glamping is roughly defined as glamourous camping utilizing extravagant canvas tents, tree houses, and other unique structures. Cost per night stays range from $100 to more than $300. I spoke to several western ALC’s whose clients have purchased property to develop this niche business. Be careful investing in this in heavily regulated areas of the state, Colorado towns have started to zone the use out as undesirable.
By 2020 the millennials will become the nation’s largest demographic. Many in this group are saddled with a lot of debt and are still living at home, however, about 19% of them live in their own home. Millennials are beginning to consider land as an investment that doubles for recreation. I have personally sold land in the past year to this group. They do not have the knowledge about land investing that was more common in Gen Xers passed on by their baby boomer parents, but they are intelligent buyers eager to learn more about the investment side of land. Expect to see more Maine land purchased by this group in 2019.
The hot topic in land this year is industrial hemp because the new farm bill legalized the growing of cannabis plants containing less than .3% THC. This level is where the federal governments differentiates between marijuana and hemp. CBD oil derived from hemp is the most profitable product to date. CDB oil has not been approved by the FDA, however consumers believe it relieves a host of ailments, including insomnia, anxiety, chronic pain and post-traumatic stress disorder.
Agricultural economist Dr. Terry Barr, spoke about a wide variety of topics. Top of his list is China’s slowing growth to about 6%. Overall worldwide growth rates are also slowing, with most increases in growth now coming from unadvanced countries. A strengthening US dollar taking buying power away from other countries will mean that US commodities will not do as well. He expects that US economy to grow more moderately than it has historically. New housing is being built strictly on demand as most spec builders are gone after the last big recession. He expects that residential housing markets will remain steady as they go.
Despite predictions of slowing world growth, at our brokerage we have seen an increase in the number of requests for winter land showings and contracts written over the previous winter. Overall Maine land sales have slowed a little but most of that I believe is due to overall lower inventories of parcels. The hunting and recreational market is strong. We have many buyers looking for cabins and homes on 40+ acres. There has also been a high demand for agricultural properties. Timberland interest has also picked up. If you are considering a sale of your land give us a call to see what the current market values are in your area.