This past week Peter McPhail and I attended the Realtor Land Institute National Business Conference in Tucson Arizona. We were among a contingent of United Country Real Estate ALC's and RLI members from Maine to California to attend the conference. The 3 day event featured national expert speakers on the economy, instructors on new real estate training and technologies plus networking opportunities with over 200 of the best land brokers in the country.
The conference opened with Lawrence Yun, The NAR's chief economist, KC Conway Senior VP of Sun Trust Bank and Dr. Mark Dotzour of Texas A&M. The three gave the group their predictions on what we should expect from the economy in 2015. Here are some of their predictions; o The U.S. GDP will underperform again this year staying below the historic norm of 3% growth, while Europe will remain around ZERO. o Interest rates will remain low but will increase slightly midyear. o Farmland prices are expected to fall with lower commodity prices o Foreign investment in US dollar assets will increase o Supply chain will switch from West Coast to the East Coasts more modern and efficient ports o Oil prices should remain low throughout this year, but gas predicted to hit $3 per gallon because of a lack of refining capacity to keep up with demand o None of the three are concerned with inflation with one predicting deflation for 2015 All three economists feel that the recovery is being slowed by the 2010 Dodd/Frank legislation that came in the wake of the banking meltdown of 2008. All agree that the legislation should be loosened to exempt smaller local banks from much of the restrictions intended to keep TOO BIG TO FAIL BANKS in check. Small banks simply can't afford the legal army needed to wade through this complex law. They have become more selective than they want to be in making loans because of fear of the new laws. These banks were not at the core of the financial crisis and most are doing well. Ask your state senators to get behind reforms to Dodd/ Frank which will encourage lending to home builders and new home buyers.